JPMorgan cuts 2026 box office forecast on slow third quarter

Investing.com -- JPMorgan reduced its 2026 North America box office forecast to $9.65 billion from $9.86 billion, citing underperformance of major releases and a slow start to the third quarter.

The investment bank lowered its estimates for Cinemark Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CNK) and IMAX Corp (NYSE: IMAX) ahead of their earnings reports. The changes reflect stronger second-quarter results offset by weaker third-quarter box office performance.

Second-quarter box office revenue reached $2.97 billion, up 12% year-over-year and above JPMorgan's estimate of $2.75 billion. The quarter marked the highest box office revenue achieved since the pandemic, driven by strong performances from Obsession and Backrooms.

The reduced full-year outlook stems from the underperformance of Minions and Mandalorian releases, along with lower tracking for Moana. These negatives partially offset improved tracking for The Odyssey and Spider-Man.

JPMorgan now projects 125 wide releases in 2026, up from 123 previously, compared to 126 releases in 2025. The bank also lowered its 2027 box office forecast to $9.85 billion, reflecting 2% price-driven growth.

The firm separately reduced IMAX estimates after second-quarter China box office came in approximately $35 million below expectations.

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