US holiday retail sales growth set to accelerate, Deloitte says

September 10, 2026 12:10 AM EDT

People wait in long TSA security lines at John F. Kennedy International Airport Queens, New York City, U.S., March 27, 2026. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. holiday ‌retail sales ​are ​expected to grow by as much as 4.8% this year, Deloitte said on Thursday, as rising disposable ‌incomes help support spending in the crucial shopping season ⁠despite consumers' continued focus on value.

Retailers have been navigating uneven consumer spending, ‌with budget-conscious shoppers cutting back ‌amid higher fuel and household costs while still selectively spending on treats and seasonal splurges.

Here are some details:

• Sales during ​the November 2026 to January 2027 period are expected to rise between 4% and 4.8%, compared with 4.1% growth ⁠in the same period a year earlier, Deloitte said, citing data from agencies including ​the U.S. Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

• That translates to holiday sales of $1.70 trillion ​to $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion a ‌year earlier, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers.

• The consultancy forecast disposable personal ⁠income, its preferred bellwether for retail and e-commerce demand, to rise 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season.

• "Consumers continue to place importance on ⁠making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making ​deliberate choices about how they spend," said Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte.

• Shoppers at every income level are looking for deals, switching brands ‌and shopping across retailers to stretch their budgets, Martini added.

• E-commerce sales are expected to increase ‌between 7.5% and 8.4%, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion during the ⁠holiday season. Online sales grew ‌7.5% to an ​estimated $294 billion in the same period a year earlier.

(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim ‌Zahid)



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