Morning Bid: Who's the boss?

A look at the day ahead ‌in European and ​global markets ​from Rocky Swift

Wall Street indexes scaled new heights overnight on earnings optimism, but the buzz fizzled out in Asia as oil prices climbed again following attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed ‌Houthis on Saudi Arabia.

To end a war that's roiled energy markets and stoked inflation ⁠for eight months, Iran must make a "meaningful" reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity, US Vice President JD Vance told Reuters.

But ‌who's going to make that call? ‌After waves of leaders in Tehran have exited the stage, nobody knows who is running the country, according to US President Donald Trump.

And speaking of leaders, if Marine Le Pen isn't the hero ​France deserves, she's the hero the nation's troubled bond market needed.

The far-right candidate considered the frontrunner in next spring's presidential election outlined plans to slash spending, prompting a relief rally in French goverment ⁠bonds whose yields had surged to multi-decade highs.

The enthusiasm spread to the euro and lent a tailwind to other bond markets, all under ​the common cloud of inflation, central bank tightening and fiscal woes. US Treasuries rebounded, aided by a solid 3-year auction, and the government is set to ​test market demand again with a $39 billion sale of 10-year ‌notes later on Wednesday.

Market focus now turns to the release of Federal Reserve minutes and speeches by its policymakers. Expectations for another rate increase this month after ⁠September's hike have retreated, but markets are still anticipating more tightening later in the year and next year.

Speeches by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Tuesday offered a mixed picture ⁠on whether hikes will be needed sooner or later. Fed officials Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are all ​due to speak later on Wednesday.

The chance of a hike of at least 25 basis points in October stands at 20.5%, down from about 51% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch, but markets are pricing in an 84.5% ‌chance of a hike at the December meeting.

The pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.62%, German DAX futures fell 0.55% and FTSE futures slid 0.25%. ‌US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, edged up 0.08%.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

• Germany industrial ⁠production (August)

• Canada leading index (September)

• US Treasury sells $39 ‌billion of 10-year notes

• Germany reopening ​of 7-year government debt auction

• UK reopening of 1-year and 5-year government debt auctions

• US Fed publishes minutes of September 15-16 meeting

• Fed data on consumer credit

(Editing by ‌Jamie Freed)

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