Morning Bid: Kicking off H2

By Mike Dolan

July 1 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global ‌markets today

By Mike Dolan, ​Editor-at-Large, Finance and ​Markets

The new month, quarter and second half kicked off in a cautious mood, with U.S. Treasury yields jumping overnight as the June jobs report looms, and investors are already looking ahead to the second-quarter earnings season.

While there was no precise trigger for ‌the jump in Treasury yields, it followed news of another surprise rise in U.S. job openings for May and ⁠comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal later today.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out the first ‌edition of a new mid-week series where I ‌unpack some of the less obvious themes in finance and markets. First up - is a young population still the economic boon it once was?

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast on what investors will be zeroing in on as the new quarter begins. ​Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

KICKING OFF H2

The U.S. labor market may be picking up steam. The so-called JOLTS report for April had shown available jobs surging, but many economists argued that the report was likely an ⁠outlier and would be revised down. But May's report saw openings rise yet again to reach a two-year high.

ADP's private-sector jobs numbers are due today, while the June national payrolls report will come ​out a day early on Thursday owing to Friday's Independence Day holiday.

Meanwhile, hopes that top-level talks between U.S. and Iranian officials would get underway on Tuesday were disappointed as the Iranian side failed to show up over disputes ​about details of the framework agreement.

In FX markets, Japan's yen sliced through 162 per ‌dollar on Tuesday to new 40-year lows, but there's been no sign of intervention to halt it so far.

Staying in Asia, South Korea's overall exports surged over 70% last month, their fastest pace in nearly 50 years, fuelled by ⁠a blistering 200% increase in chip exports. This makes the country only the fourth in the world to eclipse $100 billion in monthly exports.

Back on Wall Street, attention is already drifting to the upcoming second-quarter earnings season. That's understandable given how transformative the last one was for the AI spending theme and the chip sector.

Aggregate annual profit growth is ⁠expected to be about 22%, but 60% of that is in the chip and tech equipment sector, and just two firms account for 40% of it: Nvidia and ​Micron.

Chart of the day

South Korea's exports expanded at the strongest pace in nearly half a century last month, smashing forecasts on a surge in chip sales propelled by the global boom in AI investment.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy rose 70.9% in June from a year earlier to $102.25 billion, quickening from the 53.4% jump in May and marking ‌the biggest year-on-year increase since October 1978.

Semiconductor exports surged 199.5% to $44.8 billion, making South Korea the fourth country in the world to reach a monthly export value of $100 billion, after Germany, China and the U.S.

Today's events to watch

• ‌U.S. June ADP payrolls (8:15 a.m. EDT), June ISM manufacturing PMI (10 a.m. EDT)

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal

Want to receive the ⁠Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up ‌for the newsletter here. You can find ROI ​on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from ‌bias.

(By Mike Dolan)

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