Mexico analysts slightly trim inflation forecast for 2026, 2027

MEXICO CITY, Oct ‌1(Reuters) - Private ​sector ​analysts polled by Mexico's central bank slightly trimmed their forecast ‌for headline and core inflation for both ⁠this year and 2027, while raising their economic ‌growth estimate for 2026, ‌the bank said on Thursday.

They now expect annual headline inflation for 2026 to ​come in at 3.87%, down from 3.90% projected previously, while core inflation ⁠is seen closing the year at 3.90% versus the previous ​3.99%.

For 2027, analysts see annual headline inflation at 3.82% compared to the ​previous 3.84%, and core ‌inflation to slip to 3.78% from the 3.80% projected in the ⁠previous poll.

Mexicos' gross domestic product is now expected to grow 1.40% in 2026, an ⁠upgrade from the prior 1.30% estimate.

Analysts do not foresee ​the Bank of Mexico making any further adjustments to the benchmark interest rate, currently at 6.50%, ‌through the end of next year.

August September

Inflation, end year

pct

2026 3.90 3.87

2027 3.84 3.82

Core inflation, end

year

2026 3.99 3.90

2027 3.80 3.78

Economic growth,

annual ‌pct

2026 1.30 1.40

2027 1.80 1.80

Peso-dollar rate, end

yr

2026 17.50 17.50

2027 18.05 18.04

Interbank lending

rate

2026 6.50 6.50

2027 6.50 6.50

The survey of ⁠12 analysts was taken ‌between September ​15-28. The values shown are medians.

(Reporting by Iñigo Alexander; Editing by Aida ‌Pelaez-Fernandez)

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