Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll

July 24, 2026 6:18 PM EDT

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a ceremony at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, July 20, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado

SAO PAULO, July ‌24 (Reuters) - Brazilian ​President ​Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintained his lead over opposition senator Flavio Bolsonaro in ‌a new Datafolha poll released on Friday ⁠ahead of Brazil's October presidential election.

Lula would defeat the senator, ‌son of former President ‌Jair Bolsonaro, in a potential runoff by 48% to 43%, the poll showed. A June survey ​showed Lula ahead by 47% to 43%.

• In a first-round scenario Lula would lead with ⁠40% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 32%, Ronaldo Caiado at ​4%, and Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each at 3%.

• In Brazil, if no ​candidate gets more than 50% ‌of valid votes, the two frontrunners go to a second-round vote.

• The poll ⁠follows a rift between Senator Bolsonaro and his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

• She accused him ⁠in June of "disrespecting" her by criticizing her role in party affairs; ​he publicly apologized to her this week.

• The poll was also conducted after the United States announced a 25% ‌tariff on Brazilian goods last week, citing unfair trade practices, a charge Lula's ‌administration rejects.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,004 people between July ⁠22-23. The poll has ‌a margin of ​error of 2 percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Chris ‌Reese)



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