Economic data suggests Russian slump past worst

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's steep economic slump may finally be easing, official data published on Thursday suggested, with retail sales and real wages falling in January less than had been expected.

Russia's economy contracted by 3.7 percent last year and is expected to shrink again in 2016, hit by low oil prices which have dragged down the rouble and pushed up inflation, cutting severely into household incomes and spending.

Many analysts think the economy is past the worst as price rises moderate, a view supported by the January data. But some say the figures are flattered by comparison with exceptionally weak data a year ago.

Retail sales fell by 7.3 percent compared with a year earlier, a significant improvement on a 15.3 percent decline recorded in December, and less severe than analysts' forecast of an 9.4 percent decline in a Reuters poll.

Real wages were down 6.1 percent, compared with an 8.4 percent fall in December and the Reuters poll forecast of a 7.7 percent decline.

This follows industrial production data published on Tuesday which also beat forecasts, showing a 2.7 percent decline in January compared with December's 4.5 percent fall.

Inflation data published earlier this month showed inflation falling to 9.8 percent in January from 12.9 percent in December, as the impact of one-off price rises caused by the ruble's slide moderates.

"Encouragingly, there are early signs that falling inflation is starting to ease pressure on households' real incomes," Capital Economics economist Liza Ermolenko said in a note.

"All in all, today's data support the view that the acute phase of Russia's recession is starting to ease."

But BNP economist Eldar Vakhitov was skeptical that January's improvement marked a turnaround, seeing it as reflecting unusually low spending and wages a year earlier.

"In our view, the underlying trends remain negative," he said in a note.

"We do not see consumption recovering any time soon ... Lending conditions will likely remain tight and rising non-performing loans are adding to consumers' problems."

(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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