Bolsonaro, Lula statistically tied in simulated Brazil runoff, Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows

September 10, 2026 1:55 PM EDT

FILE PHOTO: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves to supporters as he launches his reelection campaign at Primeiro de Maio Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, August 16, 2026. REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini/File Photo

SAO PAULO, Sept ‌10 (Reuters) - Brazilian ​Senator ​Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are ‌statistically tied in a simulated runoff ahead ⁠of next month's election, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed ‌on Thursday, with the ‌right-wing lawmaker now holding a narrow numerical edge over the leftist incumbent.

• The ​eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would receive 46.4% of the ⁠vote in a second-round runoff, compared with 46.2% for Lula, ​the poll showed.

• In late August, Lula led the senator 47.1% to ​42.6%.

• In a first-round ‌scenario, Lula is seen leading with 43.0% of the vote, followed ⁠by Bolsonaro (37.4%), Augusto Cury (6.6%) and Renan Santos (6.5%).

• The previous poll showed Lula at 43.4% ⁠and Bolsonaro at 33.7% in the first round.

• If ​no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the ‌two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.

• AtlasIntel surveyed ‌5,000 people between September 4 and ⁠9. The poll has ‌a margin ​of error of 1 percentage point.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Gabriel ‌Araujo)



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