Analysis-Israel's election gives survivor Netanyahu a path to keep power

By Samia Nakhoul

DUBAI, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulled ahead on ‌Wednesday as votes were counted in ​Israel’s election, but the ​loss of a parliamentary majority leaves his path to another term dependent on drawing rivals into a coalition.

With the turnout in Tuesday's election at a record high and nearly 86% of votes tallied, Israel's three main broadcasters put Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties on course to win 53 seats in parliament, with the opposition bloc of rival Gadi ‌Eisenkot trailing on 48.

Both remained short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, or parliament, while parties representing Arab Israelis were projected ⁠to win 19 seats.

“Maybe it’s hard to say it or to see it, but he’s the winner,” said former Netanyahu adviser Aviv Bushinsky, describing the prime minister’s comeback as a political “resurrection.”

The paradox, Bushinsky said, is that an election that denied Netanyahu a majority in parliament ‌may have restored his political primacy.

Despite the fallout from the ‌October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel and criticism of the security failures on his watch that the attacks exposed, Netanyahu won the support of an unexpectedly clear majority of Israeli Jews and has emerged at the head of the largest bloc.

Netanyahu’s achievement was less to win than to survive, said Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer.

Netanyahu's bloc lost seats and fell short ​of the 61 needed to govern alone, but Eisenkot’s camp also lacked a viable route to power without the support of Arab parties.

"He won by not losing,” Citrinowicz said. “He managed to survive,” added Citrinowicz.

ARAB ISRAELIS MAKE GAINS

Netanyahu will stay on as caretaker prime minister while Israel’s president decides whom to ask to form a government. Despite not having a parliamentary majority, he retains the power of incumbency and a ⁠path to form a coalition government.

The election’s biggest disruption came from Israel’s Arab electorate, whose unprecedentedly high turnout handed Arab parties potentially decisive influence over what comes next.

Palestinian by heritage but Israeli by citizenship, Arab Israelis — who make up 21% of the population — could now hold the ​balance of power between the rival blocs.

“The Arabs have never been in a position where they held this much power,” said Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator.

Netanyahu’s opponents face a difficult route to removing him. Assembling a government would likely require direct or indirect support from Arab parties, a prospect ​that could prove difficult for potential right-wing partners such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.

That leaves two broad paths — a ‌broader unity government led by Netanyahu or another election, Israeli political analysts say.

Bushinsky sees a unity government as the most realistic option, particularly if US President Donald Trump presses Netanyahu to bring rivals into government and sideline far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

The United States is Israel's most important ally, and Trump could use his ⁠public backing for Netanyahu as leverage to push for a broader coalition, Bushinsky said.

Failing that, Israel could remain politically deadlocked and return to the polls, a move which several political analysts said could further strengthen Netanyahu rather than change the outcome of the election.

The stalemate, Citrinowicz said, leaves Netanyahu better placed than Eisenkot to be prime minister. With another election unappealing to most parties, he said he saw a Netanyahu-led unity government — potentially bringing in Eisenkot or Bennett — as the most plausible way out.

IRAN ⁠LOOMS OVER THE FIGHT FOR POWER

Since the October 7 attacks, Israel has fought wars against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and launched joint attacks with the US on Iran.

In a post-election speech to cheering supporters, Netanyahu called ​for a “strong right-wing national government” and cast Israel’s military gains as a historic opportunity to eliminate the Iranian threat.

“Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all. But ulterior motives must not divert us from this sacred mission,” he said.

Trump, who had urged Israelis to keep Netanyahu in power so the two leaders could “finish the job” in Iran, said the prime minister had done “very well” and credited ‌his own endorsement with helping him.

"It might be winning or tie. The tie is sort of considered a win in that case because it's a big chess match," Trump said.

A more consequential question may be whether Netanyahu, fighting to remain in office, again turns to Israel’s security challenges, above all Iran, to reshape ‌the political equation.

A renewed confrontation with Tehran could strengthen his calls for national unity, though any escalation would depend heavily on Washington.

Eisenkot, 66, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, sought to claim that mandate by framing the ⁠election as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership.

In a message to Israel’s security chiefs and ‌public servants, Eisenkot said Netanyahu now headed a transitional government ​that had lost public confidence. “Stand strong and firm against any attempt to challenge you,” he said.

Netanyahu entered the election burdened by a long-running corruption trial, resistance to an independent inquiry into the Hamas attack, escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank and a bitter battle over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

(Writing by Samia Nakhoul; Editing by Alex ‌Richardson and Timothy Heritage)

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