Analysis-At Dallas convention, some loyalists question Trump-centric midterms strategy

By Nandita Bose and Nathan Layne

DALLAS, Sept 11 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump used the ‌Republican Party's first-ever midterm convention this week ​to make a risky ​appeal to voters: treat November's midterm elections as a referendum on him.

Trump urged voters to "pretend that I'm on the ballot" during the two-day gathering that kicked off what Republicans hope will be a Trump-focused campaign aimed at galvanizing the party's base and recreating the turnout that powered his 2016 and 2024 election victories.

But interviews with Republicans gathered in Dallas underscored unease about that strategy. Even some attendees who strongly support ‌Trump questioned whether a president weighed down by voter concerns over inflation and the Iran war was the party's strongest messenger in competitive races.

Reuters spoke to 15 Republicans drawn from ⁠some of the party's most engaged supporters, donors and activists. Five expressed doubts about whether Trump could effectively appeal to the independents that Republicans will need to hold onto their majorities in Congress.

The skepticism was notable given the convention attracted Trump's most committed supporters and echoed the concerns raised by ‌some Republican lawmakers running in competitive districts.

"He's definitely energizing the base ‌and I think the convention was a good idea, but I'm not entirely sure if this pitch is going to work for everybody," said Len Heritage, a Republican donor from Washington state who said he contributed money to help fund the convention.

Heritage said he came away from Trump's keynote address on Wednesday night with a greater appreciation for Trump, but he was still torn over whether to believe him to be the party's best messenger. "A part of ​me does, but a part of me is very cautious," he said.

Trump said little in his speeches on both nights of the convention to address voters' top concern – the high cost of living that has helped to drive his approval ratings to historic lows as Americans sour on his economic leadership. He said food prices were rapidly declining, despite government data to the contrary.

He did promise every American adult a $5,000 "Trump dividend" if Republicans retain control of Congress, although he did ⁠not say how that would be funded.

The arena floor was full by the time Trump delivered his keynote address on Wednesday, but much of the upper deck and hundreds of side seats in the 21,000-seat American Airlines Center remained vacant, undercutting the convention's effort to showcase Trump's political strength ahead of the midterms. ​Trump, who has long fixated on crowd size, repeatedly described the arena as packed.

Still, 10 of the 15 Republicans Reuters spoke to said putting Trump front and center was the party's best strategy, arguing that his ability to motivate Republican voters outweighed the risks posed by his broader unpopularity. Most expressed confidence that Trump could win over voters beyond his ​most loyal supporters.

THE TRUMP GAMBLE

Trump's standing has held up far better among Republicans than among voters outside the party. His overall approval ‌stood at 33% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted August 28-31, the lowest level of his presidency. Among Republicans, his approval had slipped from 91% in the first days of his term to 82%. Among independents, it had fallen much more sharply, from 39% to 22% over the same period.

Opinion polls also suggest Democrats enter the midterms with a more energized voter base than Republicans.

Brian ⁠Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, said Trump's most devoted voters can be difficult to mobilize without him on the ballot.

Shaping the Republican campaign around Trump was "obviously a risky strategy," he said, "but I do think that it's better than the alternative."

Democrats have welcomed that calculation. They argue that Trump's plea to voters to "pretend that I'm on the ballot" plays into their effort to make the election a referendum on his handling of the economy and the Iran war.

Christine Gardner, a retired intellectual property lawyer from Texas attending the convention, said any downside from ⁠Trump's prominence could be outweighed by what she sees as Democrats' shift to the left, including the rise of candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, a left-wing political group now playing a prominent role in the Democratic Party.

"I think the thing that's going to ​help us more than he (Trump) could possibly hurt us is those DSAs, because the independents are gonna go, 'Wait a minute, that's a little bit way too far,'" Gardner said. "And it's almost like OK, the devil you know is better."

Speakers at the convention sought to portray Democrats as dangerous anti-American extremists who would threaten Americans' way of life if they won power, part of a Republican strategy to energize their voters by casting the election as a battle for the country's identity and values.

'HE'S THE ONLY MESSENGER WE HAVE'

That message may be ‌harder to sell in closely contested races, where Republicans cannot assume fears about Democrats will outweigh voters' concerns about Trump.

Some of the party's most vulnerable candidates stayed away from Dallas altogether, including Representative Tom Barrett of Michigan, Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Barrett's campaign said he remained home because "his voters are in his district."

Rick Williams, ‌a field representative for a Republican lawmaker in Tennessee, said he was also unsure whether Trump's pitch would resonate with independents. But he argued that was not primarily the purpose of the convention.

"He's the only messenger we have," Williams said. "I think the message is to the Trumper ⁠that voted two years ago," Williams said. "'Hey, you've got to go back.'"

For some convention-goers, the potential ‌to energize Trump's base was enough to justify the gamble.

Talako Kostini, a ​59-year-old Republican from South Texas, said that putting Trump at the center of the effort carried risks, but he argued that breaking with the traditional midterm playbook was worth trying.

"Why keep on doing things the old way? They don't work," he said. "So here we go. Let's just try something new."

(Five big takeaways from Trump's midterm convention)

(Reporting by Nandita Bose and Nathan Layne in Dallas; Editing by ‌Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)

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