David Moenning�s Daily State of the Markets: 1/31
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Retirement Party?
With an awful lot of important events on tap this week, both teams basically decided to take the day off yesterday. After an impressive blast higher at the end of last week, no one could really blame the bulls for sleeping in and finding other things to do during the session. As for the bears, well, they have had a tough time getting anything going so far this year and yesterday was no exception.
In short, stocks spent yesterday waiting. Traders waited for today�s Fed meeting, where everyone on the planet expects the Fed to raise rates one more time. They waited to hear if an end to the rate hikes would coincide with Mr. Greenspan�s retirement party. They waited on OPEC�s decision on oil production, although I�m not exactly sure what decision there was to be made. They waited on the President�s State of the Union address and debated whether the speech would contain any surprises. And finally, some may be waiting on Friday�s Jobs report, which will be Mr. Bernanke�s first big economic report.
Overall, the major indices maintained a firm tone throughout much of the day until some sell programs took the Dow slightly into the red late in the day. The big news of the day was Exxon�s $10 Billion fourth quarter. The report seemed to attract a lot of attention as there are many that believe profits of this magnitude are excessive. It didn�t help that CNBC ran a segment showing that XOM�s profits in 2005 ranked the company bigger than 68% of the world�s economies.
Turning to this morning, to almost no one�s surprise, OPEC decided to do nothing with their production levels. Since they aren�t able to pump any more oil out of the ground at the moment, the only question was if they would actually cut production. I guess the cartel decided that such a move would be considered adding insult to injury in the current climate.
There are also some developments on the Iran front. Iran said this morning that the resumption of their nuclear research is �irreversible,� but that a diplomatic solution to the standoff. Libya piped in with the suggestion that oil could easily go to $100 if the U.N. were to impose sanctions on Iran. Hmmm�
There are some economic reports on the calendar today. This morning�s report on the Employment Cost Index came in a bit below expectations at +0.8%. And while the report does show that costs for labor are not a concern, most analysts are more focused on Friday�s Jobs Report. At 10:00 am we will get the Chicago Purchasing Managers report as well as a report from the Conference Board on Consumer Confidence in January.
Running through this morning�s pre-game indicators, Gold is higher by +$3.20 to $569; Oil is down -$0.38 to $67.97 on the OPEC news that production won�t be cut; Natural Gas enjoyed a big bounce yesterday and is holding on to most of the gains at $9.32 right now; Bonds are little changed after the Employment Index, with the 2 yr yielding 4.52% and the 10 yr at 4.54%; and finally, stock futures in the U.S. are modestly lower (Dow -20, S&P -1.90, NASDAQ -0.50).
So with all eyes on the Fed today, it will be interesting to see if Mr. Greenspan�s retirement party will spill over to the gang at Broad and Wall.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
MO � Reported $1.09 vs. $1.17, Revenue $17.8B vs. $16.9B
WYE � Reported $0.59 vs. $0.61
AEM � Added to JPM Focus List
INTC � Removed from Focus List at Friedman Billings
ELN - Reported -$0.14 vs. -$0.18, Revenue $140.4M vs. $131.7M
ERICY � Reported SK0.54 vs. SK0.45, Revenues SK8.5B vs. SK7.49
GILD - Reported $0.54 vs. $0.52, Revenue $609.3M vs. $586.8M
Disclosure: At the time of publication Mr. Moenning and/or related companies are long the following positions: INTC
To see David Moenning�s Trading Record or the rank for any Top Guns Stocks, visit: http://www.AnotherWinningTrade.com/SI
With an awful lot of important events on tap this week, both teams basically decided to take the day off yesterday. After an impressive blast higher at the end of last week, no one could really blame the bulls for sleeping in and finding other things to do during the session. As for the bears, well, they have had a tough time getting anything going so far this year and yesterday was no exception.
In short, stocks spent yesterday waiting. Traders waited for today�s Fed meeting, where everyone on the planet expects the Fed to raise rates one more time. They waited to hear if an end to the rate hikes would coincide with Mr. Greenspan�s retirement party. They waited on OPEC�s decision on oil production, although I�m not exactly sure what decision there was to be made. They waited on the President�s State of the Union address and debated whether the speech would contain any surprises. And finally, some may be waiting on Friday�s Jobs report, which will be Mr. Bernanke�s first big economic report.
Overall, the major indices maintained a firm tone throughout much of the day until some sell programs took the Dow slightly into the red late in the day. The big news of the day was Exxon�s $10 Billion fourth quarter. The report seemed to attract a lot of attention as there are many that believe profits of this magnitude are excessive. It didn�t help that CNBC ran a segment showing that XOM�s profits in 2005 ranked the company bigger than 68% of the world�s economies.
Turning to this morning, to almost no one�s surprise, OPEC decided to do nothing with their production levels. Since they aren�t able to pump any more oil out of the ground at the moment, the only question was if they would actually cut production. I guess the cartel decided that such a move would be considered adding insult to injury in the current climate.
There are also some developments on the Iran front. Iran said this morning that the resumption of their nuclear research is �irreversible,� but that a diplomatic solution to the standoff. Libya piped in with the suggestion that oil could easily go to $100 if the U.N. were to impose sanctions on Iran. Hmmm�
There are some economic reports on the calendar today. This morning�s report on the Employment Cost Index came in a bit below expectations at +0.8%. And while the report does show that costs for labor are not a concern, most analysts are more focused on Friday�s Jobs Report. At 10:00 am we will get the Chicago Purchasing Managers report as well as a report from the Conference Board on Consumer Confidence in January.
Running through this morning�s pre-game indicators, Gold is higher by +$3.20 to $569; Oil is down -$0.38 to $67.97 on the OPEC news that production won�t be cut; Natural Gas enjoyed a big bounce yesterday and is holding on to most of the gains at $9.32 right now; Bonds are little changed after the Employment Index, with the 2 yr yielding 4.52% and the 10 yr at 4.54%; and finally, stock futures in the U.S. are modestly lower (Dow -20, S&P -1.90, NASDAQ -0.50).
So with all eyes on the Fed today, it will be interesting to see if Mr. Greenspan�s retirement party will spill over to the gang at Broad and Wall.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
MO � Reported $1.09 vs. $1.17, Revenue $17.8B vs. $16.9B
WYE � Reported $0.59 vs. $0.61
AEM � Added to JPM Focus List
INTC � Removed from Focus List at Friedman Billings
ELN - Reported -$0.14 vs. -$0.18, Revenue $140.4M vs. $131.7M
ERICY � Reported SK0.54 vs. SK0.45, Revenues SK8.5B vs. SK7.49
GILD - Reported $0.54 vs. $0.52, Revenue $609.3M vs. $586.8M
Disclosure: At the time of publication Mr. Moenning and/or related companies are long the following positions: INTC
To see David Moenning�s Trading Record or the rank for any Top Guns Stocks, visit: http://www.AnotherWinningTrade.com/SI
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