Can the bull market survive surging oil prices & bond yields?

Investing.com -- Yardeni Research argued in a note Monday that the global bull market in equities can withstand the recent surge in oil prices and bond yields, crediting resilient corporate earnings.

With Brent crude back above $100 a barrel and 10-year government bond yields above 5% in Australia and the U.K. and near 5% in the U.S., the firm said "either development would normally be enough to break a global bull market in stocks. Neither has so far. That's because corporate earnings keep climbing."

Yardeni said equities appear to be reading rising yields as a sign of resilient economic and earnings growth rather than a threat.

It put the U.S. 10-year yield, at 4.97%, at the top of the 4% to 5% range it calls the old normal, while noting China remains the exception, with falling yields reflecting deflation.

The firm reiterated its preference for a "Go Global" strategy, noting overseas earnings are soaring while valuations have lagged. The All Country World ex-U.S. index's forward earnings are up more than 40% year over year, yet it trades at about 13 times forward earnings, well below its 2021 peak.

On Japan, at the center of the recent bond selloff ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting, Yardeni noted a strengthening yen has weighed on the Nikkei but that Japanese forward earnings hit a record.

"Record earnings against a 15.5 forward P/E is not what a market looks like when monetary policy is about to break it," the firm said.

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