China oil demand to fall 8.9% in 2026, Sinopec says

Investing.com -- China's oil demand is set to decline by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, representing an 8.9% drop from the previous year, according to the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute. The decline is attributed to high crude prices and increased adoption of electric vehicles.

The forecast comes as China, the world's largest oil importer, sees its oil demand peak pass. Sinopec said China's oil demand peaked in 2025 and is projected to fall below 750 million tons by 2030, eventually declining to approximately 300 million tons by 2060.

Gasoline demand is expected to decrease by 8.7% year-over-year in 2026, while diesel demand is forecast to drop by 11.4%. Jet fuel demand is projected to rise by 1.3%, according to the research institute.

China's refining capacity reached 952 million tons per year in 2026, Sinopec reported. The country's crude runs fell 5.4% to 697 million tons in the second and third quarters, with the utilization rate dropping to 73.2%.

The research institute also noted that China's industrial gas demand is expected to grow by 50 billion cubic meters by 2030.

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