JetBlue raises Q3 2026 revenue outlook despite fuel and cost pressures
JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) updated its third-quarter 2026 financial guidance, raising its revenue per available seat mile (RASM) forecast while also revising its cost and capacity estimates, according to a company statement.
The airline now expects RASM to rise 17% to 20% year-over-year in the quarter ending September 30, 2026, up from its prior guidance range of 12.5% to 16.5% issued July 28, 2026. Available seat miles (ASMs) are now projected to grow 1.5% to 3.5% year-over-year, narrowed down from the previous range of 3% to 6%.
Operating costs per available seat mile excluding fuel (CASM ex-Fuel) are now expected to rise 6% to 8% year-over-year, compared with prior guidance of 2.5% to 4.5%. The company attributed the increase to weather-related disruptions and air traffic control constraints, particularly in the Northeast. Severe airport-weather days across the National Airspace System rose more than 40% versus the prior three-summer average, while JetBlue's air traffic control-related cancellations nearly doubled.
Fuel costs also increased, with the projected price per gallon rising to $3.96 from the prior estimate of $3.49, based on the forward Brent crude curve as of September 4, 2026.
Capital expenditures are now estimated at approximately $275 million, down from the prior estimate of approximately $300 million. The company noted that one Airbus A321neo XLR it expects to sell is excluded from that figure.
JetBlue said booking trends remained healthy through September across both peak and off-peak periods, with no meaningful signs of demand softening. The company also said early fourth-quarter booking trends remain encouraging.
The company's estimated effective tax rate is approximately 6% for both the third quarter and full year 2026, primarily reflecting a non-cash impact from a valuation allowance in its forecasted annual effective tax rate.
