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Three of Australia's four major banks forecast another rate hike this year

August 26, 2026 8:11 PM

SYDNEY, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The ‌Commonwealth Bank ​of ​Australia and the National Australia Bank on Thursday joined ANZ in forecasting another rate hike this year after ‌a hot inflation print reignited fears that price pressures ⁠remain elevated in the economy.

NAB, in fact, forecast an imminent rise from ‌the Reserve Bank of Australia ‌at its next policy meeting on September 29-30, arguing that the risk is biased towards an additional hike in November ​if economic activity stays resilient.

CBA and ANZ (OTC: ANZ) now forecast a rate rise in November after the July inflation data, ⁠while Westpac has yet to change its view of rates being on hold from ​here.

"While one monthly result needs to be interpreted cautiously, the renewed strength across a range of underlying ​and domestically influenced prices suggests the ‌pace of disinflation has stalled," said Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA.

"Based on recent RBA ⁠communications, we expect this upside surprise to CPI will see the RBA hike the cash rate (in November)... The risk sits with an earlier ⁠September hike."

The RBA held interest rates steady at 4.35% this month for ​a second consecutive meeting after three rate hikes this year aimed at taming inflation. Policymakers have warned that they would hike again if inflation ‌risks build.

Markets now see a 50% chance that the RBA would hike interest rates to 4.6% ‌in September, up sharply from just 17% before the inflation data. ⁠A total tightening of 30 ‌basis points is ​now priced in by February next year.

(Reporting by Renju Jose and Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by ‌Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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