Investing.com - Jefferies sees trucking spot rates and tender rejections climbing into year-end despite a seasonal cooldown in July and August, citing structural capacity reductions from federal regulation and enforcement as the primary driver of tightening supply.

Tender rejections eased to roughly 13.5% from an 18% peak in June, near pre-summer levels, as contract reconfigurations improved routing guide performance. Spot rates excluding fuel held roughly flat in July at 46% year-over-year before softening 6% month-over-month in August, with the year-over-year gain decelerating to 39%. Jefferies cautioned against reading too much into the six-week fade during traditionally slow weeks before back-to-school and peak season demand.

Trucking bankruptcies decelerated to 42 in June and 40 in July after some of the highest monthly readings on record. Second-quarter exits of 161 marked the single highest quarterly level on record, surpassing the prior record of 156 in the first quarter, with year-to-date exits up 12% year-over-year. Jefferies tied the reacceleration since late 2025 in part to the FMCSA emergency ruling restricting non-domiciled CDL issuance and renewals, with roughly 95% of closures coming from carriers doing under $1 million in annual revenue.

Containerized imports came in firmer than expected, inventories remain historically lean, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI firmed further in July to notch its seventh consecutive month in expansion. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, the first decline in nine months, while single-family housing starts fell to their lowest since November 2022 as 30-year mortgage rates sit near 6.7%.