Fitch Rates Morgan Stanley Resecuritization Trust 2015-R3

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Fitch Ratings has assigned the following ratings and Rating Outlooks to one group in Morgan Stanley Resecuritization Trust 2015-R3 (MSRR 2015-R3):

Group 6 Securities

--$16,059,000 class 6-A 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$14,094,757 class 6-B not rated.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

MSRR 2015-R3 is composed of 10 groups, and Fitch is rating one bond from one of the groups. Each group is a resecuritization of an ownership interest in a residential mortgage-backed security. As a resecuritization, the securities will receive their cashflow from the underlying security. The Fitch-rated group is collateralized with a senior class from an Alt-A transaction issued in 2006. Collateral performance has shown improvement over the past few years. The underlying pool has exhibited significant declines in the percentage of loans seriously delinquent. Also, the percentage of loans transitioning from current to delinquent has slowed as well.

For the Fitch rated group, interest is paid pro rata and principal is paid sequentially. Realized losses are applied reverse sequentially.

Key rating drivers include the performance of the underlying pool as well as the collateral characteristics, such as sustainable loan-to-value ratio (sLTV), credit score and geographic concentration. For the Fitch rated group, Fitch ran various prepayment speeds and loss timing scenarios in its analysis of the deal structure. This analysis was done to determine that the cash flow to the Fitch rated bonds would not be exposed to losses as a result of potential alternative cashflow timing stress scenarios.

Group 6 represents a 40.99% interest in the Citigroup Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-AR6 class 2A2. Based on the collateral composition of the Group 6 underlying pool, Fitch assumed a base-case scenario expected loss (XL) of 27.15%. In the rating stress scenarios, Fitch assumed a 'BBBsf' XL of 47.21%. Fitch increased the model-expected loss severity on liquidated loans by 10% at each rating scenario to better reflect recent loss severity trends. Fitch ran these loss assumptions through 12 different interest rate, prepayment and timing scenarios and used the most conservative value to determine the required credit enhancement (CE). The required CE to support a 'BBBsf' rating is 46.74%. The slightly lower CE as compared to the projected pool collateral loss is due to the limited amount of credit enhancement still outstanding on the underlying bond.

Fitch is assigning the ratings based on underlying pool collateral composition, the results of its cashflow analysis, review of final structure and supporting deal documents.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Fitch analyses each bond in a number of different scenarios to determine the likelihood of full principal recovery and timely interest. The scenario analysis incorporates various combinations of the following stressed assumptions: mortgage loss, loss timing, interest rates, prepayments, servicer advancing and loan modifications.

The analysis includes rating stress scenarios from 'CCCsf' to 'AAAsf'. The 'CCCsf' scenario is intended to be the most likely base-case scenario. Rating scenarios above 'CCCsf' are increasingly more stressful and less likely outcomes. Although many variables are adjusted in the stress scenarios, the primary driver of the loss scenarios is the home price forecast assumption. In the 'Bsf' scenario, Fitch assumes home prices decline 10% below their long-term sustainable level. The home price decline assumption is increased by 5% at each higher rating category up to a 35% decline in the 'AAAsf' scenario.

For further information, see Morgan Stanley Resecuritization Trust Representations and Warranties Appendix, dated May 29, 2015, available at www. fitchratings.com.

DUE DILIGENCE USAGE

No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.

Sources of Information:

In addition to the information sources identified in Fitch's criteria listed below, Fitch's analysis incorporated information from the LoanPerformance database including underlying loan level information and from Intex for the underlying bond structure. The RE-REMIC structure was provided by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC.

Morgan Stanley Resecuritization Trust 2015-R3 -- Appendix

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=866633

Applicable Criteria

Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744158

Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds (pub. 19 Dec 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=838868

Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 31 Mar 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=864268

Rating Criteria for U.S. Residential and Small Balance Commercial Mortgage Servicers (pub. 23 Apr 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=864368

U.S. RMBS Cash Flow Analysis Criteria (pub. 06 Apr 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=863973

U.S. RMBS Loan Loss Model Criteria (pub. 17 Nov 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=810788

U.S. RMBS Master Rating Criteria (pub. 01 Jul 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=750719

U.S. RMBS Surveillance and Re-REMIC Criteria (pub. 24 Jun 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=750110

Additional Disclosures

Solicitation Status

https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=985600

Endorsement Policy

https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150529006026/en/

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Ryan O'Loughlin
Associate Director
+1-212-908-0387
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Sean Nelson
Director
+1-212-908-0207
or
Committee Chairperson
Roelof Slump
Managing Director
+1-212-908-0705
or
Media Relations:
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278
[email protected]

Source: Fitch Ratings

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