Delos Insurance Solutions report on current wildfires and risk modeling

SAN FRANCISCO, July 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Delos Insurance Solutions, the science-driven, property insurance MGA, has compiled a report on the latest wildfires burning in the Western US, their causes and associated modeling.

The current spate of wildfires across the Western US has been driven by low snow pact, dry vegetation and strong winds.  Late June saw significant fires including the Aspen Acres CO, Babylon UT, Beehive CO, Cherry UT, Cottonwood UT, Ferris CO, Gold Mountain CO, Iron UT, Pocket AZ, Snyder UT, and Wild Goose UT. Unfortunately, we have also seen some tragic loss of life and damage to structures.  The proprietary Delos wildfire hazard model, that successfully predicted the scope of all the major California fires since 2017, has again proven reliable in predicting these latest fires.

The key drivers for all these fires are:

Drought and a failed snowpack
Persistent drought across the region coinciding with a winter snowpack far below normal. In Utah, the entire state ended March with 50% of the 1991-2020 median snow water equivalent with many basins recording record low snowpack. This led the land to lose its seasonal moisture weeks ahead of schedule pushing fuel moisture to critical levels.

Energy Release Component (ERC) at or above the 90th–97th percentile, region-wide
ERC, a daily index of how dry the fuels are, has been high across the Great Basin with late-June values reaching the 97th–99.5th percentile band. Critically high ERC values mean that fuels ignite easier and release more energy per square foot once ignited.

Extremely critical wind event
The fires ignited during a period of 'Red Flag Warning' conditions (where warm temperatures, very low humidities, and stronger winds are expected to combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger). Wind speeds reached 50mph with relative humidity as low as 3–10% with many areas seeing these conditions for a week straight.

Fires under these conditions share a similar signature: rapid rates of spread, active torching, long-range spotting from embers, prolonged nighttime burning, and high resistance to control. These are conditions where suppression activities often fail.

An accompanying Delos report into the Cottonwood fire, the largest wildfire loss event in Utah history, has been developed. In addition to the factors driving the other fires in the region, Delos cited abnormally dry Juniper trees as a significant contributing factor.

The Delos report detailed the scientific understanding behind the continued success of its fire hazard model in predicting the fire and its footprint. Of note, several neighboring towns, not impacted by the fire, including Beaver, Circleville and Marysvale, were correctly predicted by the model to be significantly lower risk areas.

"All the latest fires fall into the predicted risk scope of the Delos hazard model. With the myriad of inputs from vegetation growth and fire suppression resources through to weather patterns and topography, Delos' science-driven modeling approach continues to perform exceptionally well. Importantly, it is not just successful at predicting wildfires but also pinpointing the areas at lower risk. The skill of the model significantly improves insurance accessibility in many regions," said Scott Ritter, Delos Wildfire Scientist.

He added, "These rare sustained wind events occur periodically, however, when they align with long-term drought conditions and a yet-to-arrive monsoon, they create the perfect conditions for a wildfire outbreak."

With dry vegetation and low moisture levels persisting, fire risk levels across the Western US remain elevated. The incidents also sit within a larger human and operational context. The tragic loss of three federal wildland firefighters on the Knowles Fire, that merged into the Snyder incident, underscores the severity of the conditions facing crews across the region.

A copy of the Delos report into the Cottonwood UT fire can be downloaded here.

About Delos Insurance Solutions

Delos Insurance Solutions Delos is a multi-award winning, science-driven, homeowners insurance Managing General Agent (MGA) built for today's changing and challenging risk environment. Born in California and forged in one of the world's most complex insurance markets, Delos combines underwriting discipline, modern risk science, and agent-first distribution to deliver comprehensive homeowners coverage designed to last. All of Delos' capacity is provided through AM Best 'A' Rated or Demotech 'A' Rated companies.

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SOURCE Delos Insurance Solutions