TeamViewer stock falls after Bernstein cuts estimates on AI disruption risks

Investing.com -- Shares of TeamViewer dipped about 3% on Wednesday after Bernstein lowered its estimates and price target, warning that growth is set to decelerate as AI disruption risks loom.

In a note to clients, Bernstein cut its adjusted EPS forecasts for the 2026-27 financial year (FY26-27) by around 11% on average, citing “slowing growth prospects” and rising near-term disruption risks linked to AI.

The brokerage also reduced its price target to 7.60 euros from 11 euros previously, while reiterating a Market-Perform rating.

Analyst Richard Nguyen argues that while AI could create long-term upside, the transition carries “high near-term disruption risks.”

Bernstein’s analysis positions TeamViewer as an “AI Transformer,” meaning AI can replicate parts of its core value, creating operational and margin pressure in the short term, while medium-term upside remains if the firm “transforms itself fast enough into an AI-first company," Nguyen said.

“AI does not eliminate the need for TeamViewer’s connectivity solutions; instead, the AI risk is more likely competitive,” the analyst wrote.

“While TeamViewer’s current own AI push is as much defensive as offensive, we believe that switching costs for customers are only moderate, especially for SMBs (c.70% of group revenues), raising the AI disruption risks,” he added.

Bernstein estimates a composite automatability score of 7.0 and a defensibility score of 6.9 for TeamViewer, placing it in the high-automatability, mid-to-low defensibility quadrant of their AI risk matrix.

Nguyen warns that AI agents and large language model-powered support tools can “replicate a significant portion of the value that sits on top of remote connectivity,” compressing differentiation at the workflow level.

He also flagged soft growth momentum. TeamViewer’s FY26 revenue guidance of +0–3% at constant currencies implies continued pressure across both Enterprise and SMB segments into the first half of 2026, alongside heavier FX headwinds.

The company expects the first quarter of 2026 to be weak, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of just +2% at the exit of FY25.

While profitability remains resilient, with FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin guided at around 43%, Nguyen said material top-line acceleration “may not emerge in the near term.”

“We remain on the sidelines, even though we maintain our Market-Perform rating, as we view TeamViewer as a work-in-progress,” he said.

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