Google (GOOG) Could Conservatively Top $1,000/Share in 2012

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is trading at $644.45 Friday, up about 0.4 percent on the session so far. What does this mean? Well, the last time that Google closed above $640 was in January 2008, the 14th, to be specific, when shares ended the session at $653.82.

But that was a different Google. Revenue was only at $16.6 billion,compared with $29.30 billion expected for fiscal 2011 and $35.97 billion in 2012. There was no Android (well, there was, but Google wasn't fully utilizing it yet). Even the iPhone was barely a year old.

The stock is also up 160 percent from a low of $247.30 hit after the financial mess, on November 21st, 2008.

Back in early 2008, the stock was going for about 50 times earnings, and it's at just 14.7 times next years expectations for $43.95 per share. Applying the 50 multiplier to fiscal 2012 EPS estimates of $43.95 gives a share price of $2,197.50, and a modest 25 times multiplier gets $1,098.75.

But will competition spring from the woodwork, or will Google be a viable long-term pick?

Here's a brief analysis of both some negatives and positives:

• In 2012 Microsoft will have a more-polished mobile operating system with Windows Phone 7 'Tango,' and the new Windows 8 in the later-part of the year. Their prime method of distribution is Nokia (NYSE: NOK), and Nokia is hungry since it's been losing market share to Google and Apple over the last 12 to 18 months, if not a little more;
  
  
• Additionally, there may be further adaption of Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iOS as word continues to spread and many people shift over due to the wider availability of the iPhone and iPad. Remember, Apple is also gaining mobile OS market share, which is remarkable when considering that iOS is only available on two specific devices, compared with the hundreds for Android;
  
  
• Yes, there may also be Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) risk...but very, very subdued;
  
  
• But, Google has made a strong push into markets like daily deals, travel deals, and restaurant ratings (and possibly reservations?);
  
  
• Better ads with AdMeld;
  
  
• Becoming its own OEM with Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI). Potential for a tablet has already been rumored;
  
  
• It could be moving into the shopping realm: ala Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN); and
  
  
• more M&A likely! Who knows what Google will be aiming for in 2012.

Though many of these initiatives are unlikely to be fully realized in 2012, the acquisitions and moves definitely set Google up as a longer-term play. Critics might argue about the price, but what you have is a very Apple-like situation where there is a ton more value still stored in the stock amid the expensive price tag. Remember when Apple hit $300, and many said that was it, that was the top? Where were the voices at $350? $375? $400? $425!?!? Google could (and in many ways already is) doing the same.

So, do the research. Google should probably be one of those "buy and forget" holdings, not something to check on every day, but maybe once per quarter, or semi annually.

Also, fresh today is a call from research firm Baird, which raised its price target on Google to $760. For more color, click here.

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