'Twas the Night Before Jackson Hole...

August 25, 2011 5:10 PM UTC
'Twas the night before Jackson Hole, when all through the market, all the traders were stirring, how could we be as quiet as a mouse...

The day of reckoning has finally arrived. Friday Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver his highly-anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, Montana. As the debate continues to rage on about what he will say, everyone will be listening.

Bernanke will give a speech entitled "Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy" at 10AM.

It wasn't long ago that Wall Street heard from Bernanke & Co. On August 9th the Fed announced it would keep the Federal Funds rate "exceptionally low" at least through mid-2013. The FOMC also said it discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

A growing choir of market voices are claiming Bernanke won't announce QE3 at Friday's event. While this might be true, Bernanke almost certainly has something up his sleeve.

It is a common market misconception that Mr. Bernanke announced QE2 at Jackson Hole 2010. HE DID NOT!

In his August 2010 speech, Bernanke simply noted one option for additional monetary accommodation was to expand the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities.

The market didn't find out about the bond-buying program until September 28th when Jon Hilsenrath published a WSJ article Fed Mulls New Bond Approach. Several days later on November 3, 2010, the Fed announced the $600 billion bond buying program, or QE2.

So while he may not announce QE3, Bernanke will likely be giving some clear indication of what the next step will look like. It may be an early Christmas for Mr. Market...


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