Steel Dynamics (STLD) Guides Q1 EPS Below Consensus

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ/GS: STLD) today provided first quarter 2025 earnings guidance in the range of $1.36 to $1.40 per diluted share. Comparatively, the company's sequential fourth quarter 2024 earnings were $1.36 per diluted share and prior year first quarter earnings were $3.67 per diluted share.

(Consensus sees Q1 EPS of $1.47)

First quarter 2025 profitability from the company's steel operations is expected to be stronger than sequential fourth quarter results, based on increased shipments more than offsetting some metal margin compression, as contractual steel pricing lagged recent spot price improvements, which will be realized in the coming months. The energy, non-residential construction, automotive, and industrial sectors continue to lead demand. The company's Sinton Texas Flat Roll Division operated at production levels in excess of 90 percent in the first quarter 2025, while continuing to improve product quality and cost efficiency, continuing its clear path to profitability in the second quarter 2025.

First quarter 2025 earnings from the company's metals recycling operations are expected to be higher than sequential fourth quarter 2024 results, based on stronger realized pricing and stable volumes for ferrous and nonferrous materials.

First quarter 2025 earnings from the company's steel fabrication operations are expected to be lower than sequential fourth quarter results, based on seasonally lower shipments and less than a five percent decline in realized pricing. The pace of order activity increased in the first quarter, and the order backlog improved, extending well into the third quarter of 2025, with attractive related pricing levels. Improved demand was supported largely by the commercial, data center, manufacturing, warehouse, and healthcare sectors. Further, the accelerated announcements for meaningful manufacturing domestic investment and onshoring, coupled with the U.S. infrastructure program are expected to positively impact demand for not only steel joist and deck products, but also for flat rolled and long product steel.

The aluminum team is continuing with successful commissioning of the company's Columbus, Mississippi aluminum flat rolled products mill, along with the San Luis Potosi satellite recycled slab center. The team successfully cast its first aluminum ingot in January and has since completed start-up of the Ingot Scalper. Construction is close to complete on the Hot Line and No. 1 Cold Rolling Mill. Finishing equipment installation for the Automotive Treatment and Can Coil Coating lines are also on schedule. The company continues to expect to begin shipping material mid-2025.

Based on continued confidence in the company's earnings outlook and cash flow generation, in February 2025 the company's board of directors increased the company's first quarter 2025 cash dividend by nine percent to $0.50 per common share and also authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, as the previous program of $1.5 billion was exhausted. As of March 12, 2025, the company had repurchased $191 million, or one percent, of its common stock during the first quarter.

The company plans to release its first quarter 2025 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, and will hold a conference call the following day at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time to review the company's results.

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