Scotiabank prefers Uber, DoorDash over Lyft in ride-hailing coverage

Investing.com -- In a note Wednesday, Scotiabank initiated coverage of the ride-hailing and on-demand delivery sector, favoring scaled leaders Uber and DoorDash over Lyft.

Analyst Nat Schindler started Uber and DoorDash at Sector Outperform, with price targets of $100 and $275, respectively, and Lyft at Sector Perform with a $17 target.

The analyst said the industries are large and growing, driven by a long-term shift toward convenience and away from private car ownership, and have matured into rational, consolidated structures that support pricing and capital discipline.

Schindler argued that subscription programs, rather than logistics or pricing, separate the winners.

"Subscription lock-in, not logistics or pricing, is why the leaders are pulling away," he wrote, saying Uber One and DashPass have turned occasional users into habitual ones, lowering churn and lifting margins alongside high-margin advertising.

On the threat from autonomous vehicles, the analyst framed the issue as one of capital allocation rather than technology.

"The defining debate is not whether autonomous vehicles (AV) work, but whether a fixed asset base can serve variable demand," he wrote, arguing an owned fleet cannot flex with demand the way a marketplace can. Uber captures AV supply through partnerships without funding the fleet, he said.

Schindler described Lyft as a genuine turnaround story but structurally subscale, saying "the debate is no longer whether Lyft can survive, but whether it can scale."

Furthermore, the analyst flagged a shared risk across the three, with a heavy exposure to affluent consumers, which could leave them vulnerable to a downturn concentrated in higher-income professional roles, including from AI-driven disruption.

Scotiabank named Amazon, given its Zoox robotaxi unit and retail base, as the most credible long-term challenger.

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