Jefferies sees signs of softer iPhone 18 demand

Investing.com -- Resale prices for Apple’s latest high-end iPhones in Hong Kong are weaker than those of last year’s models, suggesting softer demand for the devices, Jefferies analysts said in a note dated Monday.

The 18 Pro is trading at discounts across almost all storage variants, while resale premiums for the 18 Pro Max fell sharply on launch day and have remained low or declined further, the broker said.

The 256GB 18 Pro Max is the only variant still commanding a meaningful premium, at about 8% above Apple’s official price. The 1TB and 2TB models are weaker, with the 2TB version trading HK$1,049 below the official price as of 5 p.m. on Sept. 27.

Jefferies attributed the weakness partly to price increases of $400 and $500, which it said may be too high relative to the perceived value of the new models.

The analysts also pointed to Apple’s switch from TLC to lower-cost QLC NAND in the 1TB and 2TB versions, potentially making the higher-capacity models less attractive on storage performance.

As of Sept. 27, resale premiums for the 18 Pro Max were below those for the 17 Pro Max at the same point last year across all variants except the 256GB model, the broker said.

Delivery lead times provide a more mixed signal. Lead times for both the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max fell across most markets early last week before rebounding toward the weekend.

Jefferies cautioned that the recovery may reflect tighter supply as Apple ramps production of its DUO device ahead of Oct. 23 deliveries, rather than stronger demand.

For the 18 Pro Max, lead times as of Sept. 27 were longer than a year earlier in Hong Kong, China and the United States, shorter in Britain and Germany, and unchanged in Japan.

For the 18 Pro, lead times were longer in Hong Kong and China, shorter in the United States and Germany, and flat in Britain and Japan.

Pre-orders for DUO begin Oct. 16. Jefferies said adoption in China could face a constraint because the device is eSIM-only and supports only two eSIM numbers there, compared with as many as eight on eSIM-capable iPhones in Hong Kong.

The limitation could be significant for Chinese consumers who maintain multiple numbers for work, personal use or travel, the broker said.

Users wanting to add a travel eSIM after reaching China may need to suspend a domestic number first, requiring an in-person visit to a mobile operator. Reactivating the number would require another visit.

Jefferies said the restrictions may have limited impact on early adopters but could become more relevant to broader demand, particularly if consumers anticipate a second-generation regular-sized foldable from Apple in 2027.

Jefferies maintained its "underperform" rating on Apple, with the stock at $341.07 in the report.

Original Article

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