Could Affirm be a $200 stock?

Investing.com -- In a note on Thursday, Mizuho floated the possibility that Affirm shares could more than double to above $200, arguing Wall Street is significantly underestimating the buy-now-pay-later company's long-term earnings power.

Analyst Dan Dolev, who rates Affirm Outperform with a $100 price target, said the "consensus is grossly underestimating AFRM's long-term earnings power."

His bull case sees the company generating well over $10 in GAAP earnings per share by 2030, roughly double consensus, versus management's own $3 to $4 target from its 2026 analyst day. The stock currently trades around $71.12.

Dolev pointed to three levers driving the gap. First, he sees up to 50% upside to gross merchandise volume, worth about $4 of additional EPS, driven by card momentum and non-card network effects.

Second, he sees potential upside to revenue less transaction costs from a favorable product mix and a bank license.

Third, the analyst pointed to a boost from agentic commerce, in which AI shopping agents transact on consumers' behalf.

He argued that "a rational, tireless AI robot shopper will optimize on price and systematically favor 0% APR checkout."

Dolev said $10 of earnings would be about twice consensus. Screening more than 700 companies with over $10 billion in market value and more than 50% expected two-year EPS growth, he found they trade at 23 to 24 times earnings, a multiple that, applied to about $9 of 2028 present-value EPS, would imply a share price north of $200.

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