Bernstein sees US-China robotics decoupling after FCC ban

Investing.com -- Bernstein said a recent U.S. ban on new foreign-made mobile robots marks the start of formal U.S.-China decoupling in the robotics sector.

The Federal Communications Commission moved directly to restrict entry of new Chinese robot models, including humanoids and quadrupeds, into the U.S. market. This approach differs from other sectors such as automobiles, telecoms, and drones, where U.S. market-access restrictions came only after a series of other measures, according to the firm.

Bernstein said the U.S. could expand its measures beyond market-access restrictions to include Entity List designations and investment restrictions, similar to actions taken against Huawei, Hikvision, and DJI. China's robotics industry currently relies on U.S. AI chips and simulation platforms, leaving these areas vulnerable to potential future U.S. policy actions.

The firm expects China may respond with lifecycle data controls as a base-case policy response, following a framework similar to that used in China's automotive industry. Chinese robotics company Galbot plans to expand its high-quality data volume by 10 times within two years.

Bernstein said rare-earth magnets may represent China's strongest policy lever, as China controls the entire value chain for these components that are critical to modern humanoid robots.

The firm identified several potential beneficiaries from the decoupling. In the U.S., policy barriers could benefit local humanoid manufacturers such as Tesla, Figure, and Agility. Leading Chinese humanoid manufacturers may continue expanding in non-U.S. markets, while Chinese component suppliers with overseas capacities, including Shuanghuan, Tuopu, Hesai, and Orbbec, may benefit from growth in both Chinese and U.S. robotics industries.

Non-Chinese component suppliers such as Schaeffler and Harmonic Drive may gain opportunities with U.S. humanoid customers seeking to diversify supply chains. Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame, both working on chips for robotics using their expertise in smart driving chips, could benefit if technology restrictions escalate.

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