Bernstein notes TSA traffic improvement reflects easy comps, not demand

Investing.com - Bernstein reported that Transportation Security Administration foot traffic showed apparent improvement in the latest seven-day period ending Sunday, though the research firm attributed the gain to weak year-over-year comparisons rather than strengthening demand.

The trailing seven-day TSA screenings closed at -1.7% year-over-year, compared to -2.5% and -2.6% at the end of the previous two weeks. Tuesday and Wednesday of last week posted positive low-single-digit year-over-year growth, the first such gains after recent trends of year-over-year declines.

Bernstein said the improvement stemmed from disruptions in the comparable 2025 period. Severe thunderstorms hit Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin airports at the start of the week in 2025, causing cancellations and delays. Dallas-Fort Worth's trailing seven-day performance improved to -1.4% year-over-year from -2% the prior week, while Austin rose to +5% from +3%. Atlanta's trailing seven-day performance jumped to +2.5% year-over-year from +0.8% the prior week.

A United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) computer outage on August 6, 2025 also weakened the comparison period. The Unimatic system failure at 6:12 p.m. ET triggered FAA-requested ground stops at Chicago, Newark, and Houston hubs, with 35% of United flights delayed and 6% canceled that day. Chicago O'Hare improved to +6.7% year-over-year from +4.6%, Newark to -0.9% from -2.4%, and Houston to -1.5% from -4.6%.

Bernstein calculated that excluding Tuesday and Wednesday from the seven-day period yielded a five-day year-over-year performance of -2.8%, consistent with recent weeks' softness.

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