American Airlines cuts fourth quarter capacity growth forecast, BofA comments

Investing.com -- American Airlines reduced its fourth quarter 2026 domestic capacity growth forecast by 110 basis points to 10.1%, according to a Bank of America report tracking weekly airline capacity changes.

The carrier cut November growth by 300 basis points as part of the reduction. American Airlines also trimmed its Atlantic growth forecast by 140 basis points to 1.8% and reduced Pacific growth by 240 basis points to negative 2.9%.

The adjustments bring American Airlines' fourth quarter 2026 system growth to 6.5%, down from 7.6% the previous week. This compares with Delta Air Lines' 3.2% and United Airlines' 5.7% system growth for the same period.

Overall domestic fourth quarter 2026 growth across carriers decreased by 30 basis points to 3.7%. United Airlines lowered its domestic growth by 20 basis points to 9.6%, while Alaska Air Group reduced growth by 20 basis points to 3.6%. Frontier Group Holdings cut its forecast by 150 basis points to 11.3%.

Southwest Airlines moved in the opposite direction, adding 20 basis points to growth from September through December, bringing its fourth quarter 2026 growth to 3.5%.

Delta Air Lines reduced its Atlantic growth forecast by 60 basis points to 4.1%. Alaska Air Group added 190 basis points to Latin America growth, though capacity remains down 28.9%. Southwest Airlines increased Latin America growth by 30 basis points to 12.6%.

TSA throughput through August 23 was down 3.7% year-over-year on a trailing seven-day basis, compared to the previous week's decline of 3.0%.

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