Q3 Preview: Can Continued IT Spending/System Refreshes Push IBM (IBM) Shares Higher?

October 18, 2010 3:22 PM EDT
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is trading higher ahead of the company's third quarter earnings report, expected out after the market closes today. Shares are up 0.99% to $142.44 in the mid-afternoon session.

IBM is expected to report an EPS of $2.75 on revs of $24.12 billion. Last quarter, IBM posted an EPS of $2.61 on revs of $23.7 billion, mixed to the consensus. Last year, for Q309, the company had an EPS of $2.40 on revs of $23.6 billion, beating expectations.

Shares of the company have gained through the quarter, popping 8.4% to $134.14 at the end of September. The stock is up just 9.1% on the year, compared to 4.1% for the S&P 500.

Data from Bloomberg has 18 analysts with a Buy rating on IBM, 7 with a Hold, and none suggesting to Sell. The analyst price target average is $149, with a high of $160 and a low of $135.

Analyst Ratings Through the Quarter
In August, Wells Fargo started the company with an Outperform rating and $147 - $152 valuation range.

Gleacher & Co. started IBM with a Buy rating and $50 price target.

Most other analysts, from Barclays to Citi, maintained their Buy ratings through the quarter, but saw positive tells going forward.

Summary
J.P. Morgan sees a Q3 EPS of $2.78, increased from an estimate of $2.76 previously. JPM sees IT spending continuing to improve, recent refreshes in mainframe and Unix systems, and less execution and M&A risk relative to peers as some of the reasons for the increased outlook.

Notably, shares have reacted to earnings reports in the past, dropping a little on misses and seeing upside on gains. Shares have traded in a range of $122.50 to $132.50 over the last several months, really only making a solid breakout since the start of September. With shares trading at their all-time highs, can Big Blue push much higher?

IBM Corp. is expected to release their Q310 earnings on Monday, October 18, 2010, at approximately 4:00pm EDT. Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Central section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release.


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