Will tariffs be refunded? How will SCOTUS side? Key questions answered

Investing.com -- Raymond James says uncertainty is mounting over the future of U.S. tariffs after a federal appeals court struck down much of the Trump International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, setting up a Supreme Court battle that could reshape presidential trade authority.

By a 7-4 vote, the Court of Appeals upheld a ruling by the Court of International Trade that the president lacks authority under IEEPA to impose expansive tariffs.

“The case is set for likely Supreme Court review, with the government seeking expedited decision by September 10, with the injunction blocking the tariffs paused through October 14,” Raymond James noted.

“Oral arguments could take place as soon as November, with a final ruling expected in early 2026,” the firm added.

A key unresolved issue is said to be whether tariffs already collected will be refunded.

“At this stage, the scope and timing of any refunds, whether retroactively to April, or limited to unliquidated goods, remains uncertain,” analysts said.

Refund eligibility is expected to hinge on the Supreme Court’s ruling and whether it issues any stays.

On the legal outcome, Raymond James highlighted ideological divides. “Of the 7 judges in the majority, 6 were appointed by Democratic Presidents, while the four dissenters were appointed by former President George W. Bush.”

Raymond James believes Conservative justices could take a narrow textualist view of IEEPA’s “to regulate” language, limiting its application to tariffs.

If the Court invalidates the tariffs, analysts expect the administration to pivot to other statutes.

“Section 338 has a maximum tariff rate of 50%, which could be appealing to President Trump, but has never been tested, potentially sparking a new legal battle,” Raymond James warned.

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