WhatsApp, Threads could drive $25B ad revenue boost for Meta

Investing.com -- Meta Platforms could see a substantial lift in advertising revenue over the next two years, thanks to WhatsApp and Threads, according to Barclays.

The bank estimates “up to $6B and $19B of incremental ad revenue from WhatsApp and Threads in ’26 and ’27, respectively,” highlighting a potential $25 billion boost to Meta’s top line.

Barclays noted that WhatsApp Status ads “should light up a huge pool of inventory across the 1.5B+ DAUs over time,” though CPMs are expected to lag other Meta surfaces due to geographic mix and lower targeting signal.

Threads, while smaller, could deliver higher monetization per user given its audience in “higher-per-capita ad revenue geos.”

The Barclays report emphasized that these new surfaces are fully incremental. “Unlike the Reels transition on Instagram/Facebook in ’22/’23, we don’t see usage shifting away from higher monetization surfaces; WhatsApp Status and Threads are 100% incremental,” the note said.

The bank also accounted for some cannibalization in 2026, as new inventory supply could pressure auction pricing.

Over the past decade, about half of Facebook and Instagram ad revenue growth came from “increasing ad load,” with the remainder driven by user engagement and eCPM, Barclays said.

For WhatsApp and Threads, the bank assumed “half of that level in ’26 and parity in ’27” to quantify new inventory potential.

Barclays also highlighted the role of Meta’s technology in supporting growth, noting that “META’s ad retrieval (Andromeda) and ad ranking (GEM/Lattice) systems continuously drive improvements,” with AI-based ranking innovation likely to provide additional upside beyond current forecasts.

Even without factoring in revenue from Meta AI, Barclays expects the new ad surfaces to allow the company to exceed consensus growth estimates of 16% and 15% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

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