OpenAI faces $700bn+ TAM by 2030: JPMorgan

Investing.com -- OpenAI could be targeting a total addressable market (TAM) exceeding $700 billion by 2030, driven by its consumer-first model, product velocity, and broadening monetization push, according to JPMorgan analysts.

In a report on OpenAI, JPMorgan said the company has grown from a “quiet research lab” into “an AI industry bellwether,” boasting over 800 million users and a $300 billion valuation as of March.

The firm noted that ChatGPT hit 500 million weekly active users in March, with roughly 75% of its revenue coming from consumer subscriptions.

“Early advantage, unrivaled brand, and consumer focus could unlock $700bn+ TAM by 2030,” JPMorgan wrote.

But the bank also flagged challenges ahead, especially in enterprise, where “indirect model access, appetite for specialized, cost-efficient models, and tough competition” could prove difficult to overcome.

JPMorgan highlighted the growing commoditization of large language models (LLMs), noting that GPT-4, once OpenAI’s flagship, now ranks 95th in LM Arena benchmarks.

“Frontier model innovation [is] an increasingly fragile moat,” the analysts wrote, as rivals like Google’s Gemini 2.5 and DeepSeek-R1 gain traction on cost and performance.

Annual recurring revenue surged around 82% in the first half of 2025 to $10 billion, yet JPMorgan described a broader “vibe spending” trend, with $63 billion in capital raised across AI infrastructure and talent. Despite this momentum, OpenAI’s profitability is not expected until 2029.

The analysts also warned of mounting risks from legal exposure, talent churn, and OpenAI’s “unconventional organizational structure,” as the company navigates complex negotiations and capital needs.

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