KeyBanc shuffles chemicals playbook amid Iran conflict

Investing.com -- KeyBanc Capital Markets revised its sector stance as the Iran conflict reshapes global petrochemical dynamics, upgrading Dow and LyondellBasell to Overweight while cutting Avient to Sector Weight.

Analyst Aleksey Yefremov wrote that “while the dust is far from settled on the Iran conflict, we see it as a positive catalyst for U.S. petrochemicals,” adding that rising crude prices are lifting the global cost curve and tightening supply.

KeyBanc said roughly “11-15% of global ethylene/PE capacity is directly affected” by the conflict, with low inventories and disrupted output likely to push global utilisation into the “mid-to-high 80%” range.

The firm now expects “at least several quarters of global petrochemical tightness before supply catches up,” as Europe remains highly dependent on imports.

Yefremov stated that both Dow and LyondellBasell stand to benefit the most, noting that LyondellBasell is “positioned relatively better due to fewer assets in the Persian Gulf and MTBE exposure.”

KeyBanc raised estimates on both companies, citing stronger outlooks for ethylene, propylene, polyethylene and MTBE.

U.S. polyethylene prices could rise by $0.10 per pound in the coming months, with “optionality for larger $0.15/lb+ increases” as supply chains run “on fumes,” KeyBanc said. Spot export prices have already climbed $0.12–$0.15 per pound.

The firm downgraded Avient on rising raw material costs and inflation-related demand risks. It maintained Sector Weight on Westlake, citing offsets from higher housing-related costs, and highlighted partial benefits for Celanese from a tightening methanol market.

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