Can Paramount Skydance bid beyond $30 per share for WBD?

Investing.com -- A key question in the Warner Bros. Discovery takeover battle is whether Paramount Skydance will be willing to bid above $30 per share, according to a new note from Moffett Nathanson.

Analyst Robert Fishman told investors that this has been “the biggest ongoing question in the WBD deal saga,” particularly after Warner Bros. Discovery received a seven-day waiver from Netflix to negotiate with Paramount Skydance.

WBD has indicated that Paramount Skydance signalled “willingness to go to $31/sh. But still not its ‘best and final,’” Needham said.

Fishman noted that the firm expects Paramount Skydance “to go to at least $32/sh. to put the pressure back on NFLX to match.”

However, if the bidder wants to “end a bidding war today,” Needham argued that “a bid in the range of $34/sh. would avoid further debate over Discovery Global’s value.”

For Netflix, the “deal math” becomes less compelling as the price rises. Fishman wrote that Needham’s base case “sees no accretion beyond $30/sh.,” though the firm cautions that media M&A “rarely plays out as expected.”

The central issue, the analyst said, is whether Netflix can “remain disciplined in its approach and walk away if PSKY goes much higher.”

According to the note, Netflix shareholders may benefit regardless of the outcome. Fishman wrote that “longer-term benefits of owning Warner Bros.’ assets” are not fully reflected in the stock, but if the company walks away, its “core fundamental drivers of subscriber and advertising growth plus pricing power should rebuild investor confidence.”

The firm reiterated Buy ratings on Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery.

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