BofA sees trucking pricing gains ahead despite weak freight demand

Investing.com -- Bank of America analysts said the trucking industry may see higher pricing driven by years of carrier attrition, a tighter driver market, and rising safety standards, even without a broad freight recovery. The assessment came from the American Trucking Association's annual Management Conference & Exhibition in Charlotte this week.

ATA chief economist Bob Costello said tighter supply and demand conditions stem from capacity attrition and regulatory enforcement rather than increased freight volumes. Freight demand remains weak, with growth in artificial intelligence investment offset by pressure from tariffs, trade war escalation, trade deficits, uncertainty with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, rising interest rates, and higher energy prices.

Costello noted that while 2026 GDP stands at about 2.4%, the figure would be up only 0.5% without AI investments. About 10% of U.S. production is AI-related, including electrical equipment spending up 10.3% year-over-year, computer equipment up 8.3%, and aerospace up 7.9%. Food production, which accounts for 12% of U.S. production, fell 1% year-over-year, while chemicals also declined 1%. Retail and housing remain soft.

ATA contract truckloads are 9% below the 2022 peak, spot postings remain well below peak levels, and less-than-truckload shipments were flat in 2025 with only a small increase in 2026. Interstate carriers have declined by more than 42,000 since December 2022, representing about 12% of the total.

Truckload carrier costs rose about 13% between 2022 and 2025, while revenue per mile increased 8.4%. The Southwest region may indicate what tighter capacity will look like more broadly, as in-region shipments are down 13% due to cross-border tariff impacts, yet shipper spending is up 37% in the region.

Safety enforcement and litigation are raising barriers to entry in the industry. One lawyer at the conference said carriers can no longer meet just minimum standards as litigation risk drives change. A shipper said it had cut its carrier base by roughly 55% to reduce risk exposure, while shippers and brokers are imposing tougher safety and insurance requirements.

Bank of America said these conditions will likely continue to favor large, well-capitalized carriers and brokers.

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