Noted Blogger Sees Apple (AAPL) Reaching First $40B+ Quarter
Tweet
Share
E-mail
Get Alerts AAPL Hot Sheet
Price: $257.46 -1.09%
Rating Summary:
45 Buy, 28 Hold, 7 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 0 | Down: 0 | New: 0
Rating Summary:
45 Buy, 28 Hold, 7 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 0 | Down: 0 | New: 0
Join SI Premium – FREE
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) shocked investors with its fourth-quarter earnings report in October, when earnings ripped 54 percent higher, but actually missed Street expectations.
Traditionally, major Street analysts issue guidance which is generously conservative to what Apple should actually report. Whether they do or do not know this is purely speculative. Fortune in particular has put up charts showing how much closer no-name bloggers are to the actual numbers, except the last quarter (more here).
Today, noted Asymco analyst, Horace Dediu, issued some expectations for Apple heading into it's first quarter report (which should come out sometime in late January, based on the October report).
The duo of factors he addresses are: iPhone 4S and iPad demand. Oh, and he accounts for the holiday fudge factor, too.
Immediately, Dediu says pent-up demand for the iPhone will mean growth of 100 percent. For calendar 2010, Apple sold about 47.5 million iPhones, meaning Dediu is looking for 95 million in 2012. With about 56 million being sold so far, he's modeling for 39 million shipments in calendar fourth quarter. One Citi analyst agrees, somewhat, seeing iPhone growth "meaningfully" above low-30 million units, though 39 million is approaching the high-end of even the most bullish.
Growth rates for the iPhone have been 113, 142, and 21 percent for the first three quarters. He's modeling for 120 percent in the fourth-quarter, or 36 million units.
Dediu settles on a range of 36 million to 39 million units.
On the iPad, sales have been up 182.8 and 156.6 percent, but he's modeling for 100 percent growth, to 14.6 million units.
Dediu provides a summary of estimates:
Traditionally, major Street analysts issue guidance which is generously conservative to what Apple should actually report. Whether they do or do not know this is purely speculative. Fortune in particular has put up charts showing how much closer no-name bloggers are to the actual numbers, except the last quarter (more here).
Today, noted Asymco analyst, Horace Dediu, issued some expectations for Apple heading into it's first quarter report (which should come out sometime in late January, based on the October report).
The duo of factors he addresses are: iPhone 4S and iPad demand. Oh, and he accounts for the holiday fudge factor, too.
Immediately, Dediu says pent-up demand for the iPhone will mean growth of 100 percent. For calendar 2010, Apple sold about 47.5 million iPhones, meaning Dediu is looking for 95 million in 2012. With about 56 million being sold so far, he's modeling for 39 million shipments in calendar fourth quarter. One Citi analyst agrees, somewhat, seeing iPhone growth "meaningfully" above low-30 million units, though 39 million is approaching the high-end of even the most bullish.
Growth rates for the iPhone have been 113, 142, and 21 percent for the first three quarters. He's modeling for 120 percent in the fourth-quarter, or 36 million units.
Dediu settles on a range of 36 million to 39 million units.
On the iPad, sales have been up 182.8 and 156.6 percent, but he's modeling for 100 percent growth, to 14.6 million units.
Dediu provides a summary of estimates:
- iPhone units: 35.7 million (120%)
- Macs: 5.2 million (27%)
- iPads: 14.7 million (100%)
- iPods: 13.6 million (-30%)
- Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 22%
- Peripherals rev. growth: 25%
- Software rev. growth: 25%
- Total revenues: $44.6 billion (growth: 67%) (The Street is at $37.99 billion. Also, this would be the first $40 billion + revenue quarter for Apple.)
- GM: 42.0%
- EPS: $12.30 (91%) (The Street is at $9.75)
Create E-mail Alert Related Categories
Analyst Comments, Insiders' Blog, Trader TalkRelated Entities
Citi, EarningsSign up for StreetInsider Free!
Receive full access to all new and archived articles, unlimited portfolio tracking, e-mail alerts, custom newswires and RSS feeds - and more!
