Nomura Securities Global FX Outlook
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Nomura Securities Global FX Outlook by Simon Flint
"As currently configured, the EU is failing. Individually valid but collectively dangerous attitudes seem irresolvable, in part because they are time-inconsistent. At some point, the ECB is likely to act as a bridge, causing risky assets to recover, but until then, risk is off. Even then, repeated policy failure (across G3) will make it hard for the market to sustain belief in any solution. Furthermore, extreme fiscal tightness is a recipe for recession. Recession in the euro area could have considerable unintended consequences, such as bank deleveraging and high profile bankruptcies. The failure of the Western world to emerge from the Reinhart-Rogoff torpor could be corrosive for risk."
"As currently configured, the EU is failing. Individually valid but collectively dangerous attitudes seem irresolvable, in part because they are time-inconsistent. At some point, the ECB is likely to act as a bridge, causing risky assets to recover, but until then, risk is off. Even then, repeated policy failure (across G3) will make it hard for the market to sustain belief in any solution. Furthermore, extreme fiscal tightness is a recipe for recession. Recession in the euro area could have considerable unintended consequences, such as bank deleveraging and high profile bankruptcies. The failure of the Western world to emerge from the Reinhart-Rogoff torpor could be corrosive for risk."
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