Marvell (MRVL) PT Raised to $265 at Susquehanna

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland raised the price target on Marvell (NASDAQ: MRVL) to $265.00 (from $230.00) while maintaining a Positive rating.

The analyst commented: "Marvell reports earnings this Thursday. We expect better results/guidance, driven mainly by AI networking strength. For Marvell’s custom XPU business, AWS raised its capex guidance for 2026 to $220B (~$200B previously), although the increase was driven by higher memory costs. Anecdotally, results for Fabrinet’s HPC segment (we believe Fabrinet assembles Trainium 3 boards) were weaker than we expected. Overall, supply constraints on advanced process nodes and delays may be inhibiting a stronger Trainium-3 ramp this year. That said, AWS emphasized that long-term customer demand for AI computing remained “striking” and that engagements on Trainium had continued to be robust. AWS even noted there was “a real chance” it would eventually sell the chip externally as standalone hardware (maybe to Anthropic?). Thus, Marvell expects its custom business will more than double in FY28 (we estimate ~$4B). Interestingly, Marvell also reaffirmed its FY29 custom business target of ~$10B, implying another meaningful acceleration from the ~ $4B we are modeling in FY28. Importantly, after much supply chain speculation, Marvell finally formalized a commercial agreement with Google relating to the development of custom AI products. While the bulk of this partnership appears to center on “attach” products (i.e., storage controllers, NICs, etc.), the announcement specified the agreement also covered “AI inference accelerators.” In aggregate, the agreement with Google covers a staggering ~$120B worth of custom product business through 2033. Given this new partnership, we suspect Marvell may further increase its FY28 and FY29 custom XPU target. For Inphi, read-throughs from transceiver module and component makers continue to be extremely robust (i.e., Coherent and Lumentum). Given the continued positive dynamics here, Marvell should see considerable upside from its DSP business, as well as its broader portfolio of TIAs, drivers and retimers. Outside the data center, scale-across read-throughs have been equally strong (if not stronger). DCI thus should be another source of upside for Marvell. Given these positive dynamics, we expect Marvell will raise its FY27 target for Inphi. Overall, we expect continued momentum for Inphi as the AI networking environment continues to expand. Reiterate Positive and raise PT from $230 to $265 (~88x C2026E EV/NOPAT)."

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