H.C. Wainwright Reiterates Buy Rating on Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM)

H.C. Wainwright analyst Raghuram Selvaraju reiterated a Buy rating and $180.00 price target on Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AXSM).

The analyst commented: "Last week, Axsome announced preliminary 4Q24 and full-year 2024 net product revenue. Based on preliminary unaudited financial information, Axsome expects total product revenue to be approximately $118.3M and $385.2M for 4Q24 and full-year 2024, respectively. Investors should note that we were originally forecasting 4Q24 product revenue totaling $117.2M and full-year 2024 product revenue totaling $384.1M; accordingly, Axsome's preliminary top-line results constitute modest outperformance vs. our estimates. Auvelity net product sales are expected to be roughly $92.6M and $291.4M for 4Q24 and full-year 2024, respectively. Sunosi net product revenue is expected to be ~$25.7M and $93.8M for 4Q24 and full-year 2024, respectively. Investors should note that this constitutes robust growth on both fronts vs. 2023, when total full-year Auvelity and Sunosi sales reached $130.1M and $74.8M, respectively. We continue to expect robust Auvelity uptake going forward, particularly once Axsome begins its long-anticipated direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising campaign in support of the product later this year. Our full-year 2025 top-line forecast has been adjusted to $665.4M vs. the prior $691.9M to reflect more conservative market entry and uptake expectations for AXS-07 and AXS-12. Our full-year 2025 net loss estimate has widened to $1.37 vs. the prior forecast for a net loss of $0.41 per share to reflect the increased promotional spending that we expect to occur later this year in support of Auvelity, for which Axsome recently expanded its field sales force. However, we continue to expect the company to reach cash flow-positive status in 2H25. We reiterate our Buy rating and 12-month price target of $180 per share."

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Shares of Axsome Therapeutics closed at $91.94 yesterday.

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