Guggenheim Starts Autodesk (ADSK) at Buy

Guggenheim analyst Tamjid Chowdhury initiates coverage on Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) with a Buy rating and a price target of $245.00.

The analyst commented: "We are initiating coverage of Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) with a Buy rating and a price target of $245, implying 16% upside potential from current levels. Founded in 1982, ADSK has become an indispensable brand across engineering and architecture through the democratization of design software. ADSK has since extended well beyond its core markets into manufacturing, media and entertainment, and construction — a trajectory that continues with its recently announced, still-pending acquisition of MaintainX, which pushes ADSK into operations workflows. In parallel, ADSK is rolling out a new commercial model, shifting from reseller-invoiced transactions to direct billing with its end customers, while channel partners retain the advisory and services relationship — a deliberate move to get closer to its customers and capture richer usage data. Perhaps most important today, ADSK's longevity and entrenched positioning make it indispensable to the difficult and still-early mission of applying AI to design. We believe ADSK has a considerable moat against AI obsolescence, as it meets three of the five criteria in our framework: context-rich systems of record, exposure to multiple stakeholders, and exposure to highly regulated industries. ADSK had a head start in AI in 2018 with generative design in Fusion (manufacturing product), but continued execution on product development will be pivotal. On macro indicators, the setup skews mixed-to-negative given the contraction in the Architectural Billings Index, though we acknowledge the difficulty of relying on any single metric for a business with ADSK's scale and breadth. The numerical setup is favorable, with ample upside potential to FY27E total revenue and billings. Looking further out to FY29, we see upside potential to estimates as well, even if new business growth moderates relative to the past five years. We rate shares Buy with a $245 PT, implying a 6.4x EV/NTM rec rev multiple versus the current 5.4x."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Autodesk click here. For more ratings news on Autodesk click here.

Shares of Autodesk closed at $211.15 yesterday.

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