Dougherty Previews Tesla's (TSLA) Q4 (Earlier)

Dougherty & Co maintained a Buy rating on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) with a price target of $325. Comments come ahead of its fourth quarter results, which are expected after market close on Wednesday, February 11, 2015.

Analyst Andrea James sees gross margins of 26.7% in 2015, and she lowered FY15 unit expectations from 65,000 units to 60,000. This is ahead of Street at 50,000 to 60,000 deliveries, the report noted.

Overall, Dougherty remains positive on Tesla, and James said the stock’s recent decline on lower oil prices was a compelling opportunity.

On Q4, James said, "We believe that TSLA's Q4 deliveries were at risk as of December because of a two week delay related to the Model S Performance 85 kWh Dual Motor vehicle (P85D). (The car's airbag deployed a fraction of a second too slowly, so TSLA delayed P85D deliveries to fix the problem.) We believe the maximum impact of this delay is 300 units. We are dropping our Q4 unit estimate from 11,179 to 10,900, or by 279 units."

"The street is expecting Q414 EPS of $0.31 on revenue of $1.23b. This compares to our $0.24 EPS estimate on revenue of $1.2b for Q4. Revenue estimates range from $1.05b (Baird) to $1.3b (BofA). EPS estimates range from $0.03 (MS) to $0.44 (FBN.) Consensus gross margin for Q414 is 27.14%, which compares to our 27.5% estimate," continued the analyst.

"For FY15, consensus EPS is $2.74 on revenue of $6.1b, which compares to our $0.52 EPS estimate on $5.2b in revenue. In FY15, street EPS estimates range from $1.07 (FBR) to $4.12 (JPM). Revenue ranges from $4.8b (FBR) to $7.5b (CLSA). Our updated FY15 EPS estimate will be street-low. In 2015, the street is looking for gross margin of 28.12%, which is above our downwardly revised 26.7% estimate," she added.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Tesla Motors click here. For more ratings news on Tesla Motors click here.

Shares of Tesla Motors closed at $210.94 yesterday.

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