Affirm Holdings (AFRM) PT Raised to $90 at UBS

UBS analyst Tim Chiodo raised the price target on Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM) to $90.00 (from $82.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "FQ1 GMV guided to ~30% growth at HE despite a few lapping considerations vs. FY 2027 outlook of >27% growth: We believe the combination of a ~30% FQ1 growth profile despite several lapping headwinds, a ~4.2% RLTC guide for FY 2027 (~4.16% precisely), and a FY 2027 framework calling for >27% GMV growth underscores continued confidence in sustaining elevated growth at materially larger scale. And while the guidance implies a degree of investment in FY 2027, the opportunities in International, in-store, and even within the core US eCommerce business, suggest these dollars will likely see a return in the form of stronger GMV and RLTC$ growth for a longer period of time. FQ4 once again delivered strong execution with the strength carried through to FQ1 expectations. The company guided FQ1 GMV to ~30% YoY growth at the high end despite a few known headwinds, including the shift in timing of Prime Day (out of July and into June in 2026) and final 2 months of lapping the loss of Walmart (volumes moved off in September). Beyond FQ1, Affirm guided FY 2027 GMV to >$64b, implying growth of at least ~27% on top of FY 2026 GMV of ~$50.2b (~37% growth), while maintaining RLTC take rate at FY 2026 levels (~4.16% of GMV, respectively). Importantly, the company continues to highlight multiple underpenetrated growth vectors, including Affirm Card (which carries a high, ~80% interest bearing attach rate), in store adoption, merchant expansion (only on ~80 of the top 250 eCommerce sites in the US and ~10% of total eCommerce sites), increasing share of merchant volume, new verticals such as professional services and healthcare, international expansion, and the upcoming launch of Affirm Edge (~2H FY 2027 pilot of Edge enabled cards)."

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