Goldman Sachs raises humanoid robot forecast, sees auto role

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs increased its forecast for the humanoid robot market on Monday, projecting unit sales will reach 6.48 million by 2035, up from a previous estimate of 1.38 million units.

The investment bank now expects the market to reach $138 billion, approximately ¥22 trillion, by 2035. This represents a substantial increase from its prior forecast of around ¥6 trillion.

Goldman Sachs said advances in physical artificial intelligence are speeding up humanoid robot development, with more companies moving toward larger-scale prototypes and commercial production.

The firm said the automotive industry is well positioned to support mass production of humanoid robots due to its experience manufacturing complex industrial products at scale. Goldman Sachs evaluated global automakers across three areas: intent to enter the humanoid market, stagnation of core business, and financial and operational capability.

Tesla and Hyundai are currently among the most active participants in humanoid robotics, according to the report. Among Japanese automakers, Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi Motors are relatively well positioned.

Goldman Sachs said the Toyota Group has four key elements for establishing a presence in robotics: labor needs, urgency from battery electric vehicle supply chain pressures, hardware and software technology with mass production capability, and management commitment backed by financial strength.

The firm estimated Toyota could potentially produce approximately 190,000 to 540,000 humanoid robot units in 2035, representing a global market share of roughly 3% to 8%. This could add 2% to 6% to Goldman Sachs' gross profit estimate for the fiscal year ending March 2027.

Goldman Sachs identified potential stock beneficiaries including Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi Motors, JTEKT, Aisin, MinebeaMitsumi, Renesas, Harmonic Drive, and NEC/Fujitsu through Noetra. The firm initiated coverage of JTEKT with a Buy rating.

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