Bernstein raises server shipment forecast as AI infrastructure spending grows

Investing.com -- Bernstein has increased its forecast for global server and GPU AI server shipments, projecting compound annual growth rates of 15% and 22% respectively through 2028, according to the firm's second quarter 2026 AI tracker released Monday.

The firm expects 8-GPU equivalent server shipments to grow 48% this year, with total rack shipments reaching 61,000 units in 2026 and 88,000 units in 2027. Both Nvidia's Rubin rack and AMD's Helios rack are scheduled to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Total planned and in-construction data center investment stands at approximately $1.2 trillion. Following second quarter earnings, market estimates for major cloud service providers' 2026 capital expenditure increased nearly 15% compared to March 2026 projections, with total capex expected to reach around $1.1 trillion by 2027.

Meta announced its $50 billion Hyperion project, up from $27 billion in November 2025, along with a $14 billion venture with BlackRock for an El Paso data center and a $9 billion AI data center in Canada. SoftBank Group said it will launch neocloud services called "SB Neo" targeting 10 gigawatts of capacity by around 2030, and will invest up to $85 billion to develop 5 gigawatts of data center capacity in France.

Broadcom secured a long-term agreement with Google to develop future generations of TPU, while Marvell is ramping up ASICs for all four major cloud service providers. Bernstein projects ASICs to represent approximately 45% of total CoWoS-based AI chip shipments, with TPU shipments growing roughly 90% year-over-year in 2026.

The global server market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2028.

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